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This paper investigates whether the early experience of non-employment has a causal impact on workers' subsequent career. The analysis is based on a sample of low educated youth graduating between 1994 and 2002 in Flanders (Belgium). To correct for selective incidence of non-employment, [the author] instrument[s] early non-employment by the provincial unemployment rate at graduation. Since the instrument is clustered at the province-graduation year level and the number of clusters is small, inference is based on wild bootstrap methods. [The author] find[s] that one percentage point increase in the proportion of time spent in non-employment during the first two and a half years of the career decreases annual earnings from salaried employment six years after graduation by 10 per cent and annual hours worked by seven per cent (unconditional effects). Thus, any policy that prevents unemployment in the first place will be beneficial. In addition, curative policies at the micro level may be required, depending on the actual cause of the scar.

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[The authors] study the impact of graduating in a recession in Flanders (Belgium), i.e. in a rigid labor market. In the presence of a high minimum wage, a typical recession hardly influences the hourly wage of low educated men, but reduces working time and earnings by about 4.5 per cent up to 12 years after graduation. For the high educated, the working time is not persistently affected, but the penalty on the hourly wage (and earnings) increases with experience, and attains roughly -6 per cent 10 years after labor market entry. [The authors] also contribute to the literature on inference with few clusters.

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This paper evaluates the impact of a vocational training programme on the labour market outcomes of unemployed youth in Latvia. The programme is part of the Youth Guarantee scheme for the period 2014-2020, the largest action launched by the European Union to reduce youth unemployment rate and to support young people aged between 15 and 29 who are not in education, employment or training (NEETs). To estimate the causal effect of participating in the programme on the employment outcomes, we exploit a rule that gives priority for participation to unemployed people under the age of 25 using a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design setup. The estimated effects of the programme on the probability of being employed and monthly income up to 3.5 years after registering in the programme are positive but not statistically significant, although we find a strong positive effect of the priority rule on programme participation. This is the first evidence on the impact of a programme within the current Youth Guarantee scheme in Europe and our findings are in line with those from the literature on the evaluation of active labour market policies targeting youth.

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to evaluate a recent training programme for graduates, implemented in Italy and entitled Work Experience Laureati and Laureate, i.e. Work Experience for Graduates. The aim of the programme was to increase the career prospects of unemployed graduates in the region of Umbria. Design/methodology/approach - The authors rely on administrative data and matching methods to evaluate the effectiveness of the intervention in terms of employability of participants. Findings - The results show that participants are more likely to be employed and to sign an apprenticeship contract within the region boundaries. The authors also find substantial differences in employability and type of contract by gender, with men having a higher probability of finding a job (permanent contract and apprenticeship). The authors show that this may be explained by the different choices in terms of field of study, with males being more prone to enrol in scientific areas and females in the humanities. Research limitations/implications - It is an intervention implemented in one Italian region. Originality/value - This is one of the few studies that analyses the effectiveness of active labour market policies targeting unemployed graduates, especially in the Italian context. The authors rely on different administrative data sources that allow them to evaluate the effectiveness of the programme.

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